Soon after NBC canceled Manifest due to issues in ratings, fans were quick to protest on Twitter, eventually scoring them a fourth and final season on Netflix. It wasn't easy getting there, though. Showrunner Jeff Rake dealt with a few legal issues to get the renewal.
Now, while waiting for season 4 to land on the streaming platform (It premiered on August 28, 2022), we thought it might be time to uncover the inspiration behind the addictive mystery hit, as well as what really happened to Flight 828...
Is 'Manifest' Based On Real-Life Events?
Yes and no — the series isn't based on a true story, but it's connected to a real-life plane disappearance. But before we dive into that, let's talk about the previous shows that influenced the Manifest. First is the hit ABC series Lost. It aired from 2004 to 2010. After the six-season show ended, many networks tried to capitalize on its success. NBC itself made an initial attempt with the short-lived The Event. They lucked out with Rake's pitch. "Missing planes aside, Manifest's dealing with complex and centuries-old mythology takes what LOST started and builds upon it," wrote CBR.
CBR also claims that the underrated USA Network series The 4400 "paved the way" for Manifest's plane return plot. "The 4400 tells of 4400 people who suddenly return (all from different points in time) having not aged a day," wrote David McGuire. "Their return sparks anger and fear as the public doesn't know how to process the return of these people who seem to possess a super-power." Sound familiar?
But ultimately, the main inspiration for Manifest was the unexplained loss of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 in 2014 — a mystery that haunts people across the world to this day. The aircraft was flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. Its 227 passengers and 12 crew members were never seen again. "That flight has a pivotal role in my story, but the truth to the matter is that I thought of that idea almost ten years ago," Rake said of the connection.
"[We were] driving in a mini-van with my family to the Grand Canyon, thinking about family, togetherness, separation," he continued. "The big idea hit me, I pitched it around, nobody wanted it." The concept became a hit years later amid the MH370 tragedy. "[And] then, seven years later, Malaysian Airlines happened, and suddenly my crazy idea felt a little more real, a little more relatable, in the context of Malaysian Air, suddenly people were interested," recalled the show creator.
What Happened To Malaysia Airlines Flight 370?
The plane disappeared from air traffic control 38 minutes into its flight. However, a satellite analysis showed that it had kept flying for seven more hours. "It is almost inconceivable and certainly societally unacceptable in the modern aviation era … for a large commercial aircraft to be missing and for the world not to know with certainty what became of the aircraft and those on board," Peter Foley of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau told The Guardian in 2021.
"It's one of those things that will enthrall people until the mystery is solved," added. Aerospace engineer Richard Godfrey — who's part of an independent group searching for the wreckage — spent hours every day in the last eight years, trying to locate the aircraft. The Guardian reported that "his findings suggest the MH370 pilot laid false trails to confuse authorities before plunging into the southern Indian Ocean. That in turn suggests the pilot knew what he was doing."
A month after the article was published, their team found the plane. It is said to be resting at the base of Broken Ridge over the Indian Ocean. Godfrey still believes the crash was an "act of terrorism." According to him, pilot Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah "decided to divert his aircraft and make it disappear in one of the remotest places in the world."
What Really Happened To The Plane In 'Manifest'?
Fans have developed tons of good theories about Flight 828. Just check this one out: "Flight 828 travelled through time. It crashed in the future, and the people in that future realized it had caused a ripple effect in the timeline, probably a negative one," wrote a Reddit user. "The plane was supposed to have been a normal flight. The future people sent the plane back (it took them some time to do that, thus the 5 year gap) and the callings were basically what the passengers would have done or could have done if the flight had gone normally."
They added that the callings are vital to fixing the real timeline of things. "They have to do the callings to help the timeline get back on track," they continued. "If they don't do those callings, the timeline is impacted, and the time travel incident isn't corrected, thus rendering the future not what it was supposed to have been." Season 3 didn't leave enough details to put a solid answer together. But we're sure we'll get a mind-blowing revelation in season 4.